**Clear skies and light northeasterly winds overnight are enabling efficient radiative cooling across the Madrid region, positioning the lowest temperature near or below the seasonal average of 16°C.** Official forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows of 16–18°C under high-pressure dominance and minimal cloud cover, consistent with historical September patterns where clear conditions frequently produce the day's minimum just before dawn. Trader consensus reflected in the 46% implied probability for 11°C or below, alongside clustered odds around 14–16°C, suggests markets are pricing in potential for enhanced cooling if winds remain calm or if local urban heat island effects are weaker than anticipated. Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded by 00:00 UTC on September 13, with no major model shifts expected before final observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
11°C or below 92%
12°C 91%
13°C 91%
17°C 91%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
11°C or below
92%
12°C
91%
13°C
91%
14°C
48%
15°C
48%
16°C
46%
17°C
91%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
11°C or below 92%
12°C 91%
13°C 91%
17°C 91%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Обс.
92%
12°C
$0 Обс.
91%
13°C
$0 Обс.
91%
14°C
$4 Обс.
48%
15°C
$0 Обс.
48%
16°C
$0 Обс.
46%
17°C
$0 Обс.
91%
18°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$65 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$65 Обс.
<1%
21°C or higher
$0 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light northeasterly winds overnight are enabling efficient radiative cooling across the Madrid region, positioning the lowest temperature near or below the seasonal average of 16°C.** Official forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows of 16–18°C under high-pressure dominance and minimal cloud cover, consistent with historical September patterns where clear conditions frequently produce the day's minimum just before dawn. Trader consensus reflected in the 46% implied probability for 11°C or below, alongside clustered odds around 14–16°C, suggests markets are pricing in potential for enhanced cooling if winds remain calm or if local urban heat island effects are weaker than anticipated. Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded by 00:00 UTC on September 13, with no major model shifts expected before final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$134Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light northeasterly winds overnight are enabling efficient radiative cooling across the Madrid region, positioning the lowest temperature near or below the seasonal average of 16°C.** Official forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows of 16–18°C under high-pressure dominance and minimal cloud cover, consistent with historical September patterns where clear conditions frequently produce the day's minimum just before dawn. Trader consensus reflected in the 46% implied probability for 11°C or below, alongside clustered odds around 14–16°C, suggests markets are pricing in potential for enhanced cooling if winds remain calm or if local urban heat island effects are weaker than anticipated. Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded by 00:00 UTC on September 13, with no major model shifts expected before final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$134Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies and light northeasterly winds overnight are enabling efficient radiative cooling across the Madrid region, positioning the lowest temperature near or below the seasonal average of 16°C.** Official forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows of 16–18°C under high-pressure dominance and minimal cloud cover, consistent with historical September patterns where clear conditions frequently produce the day's minimum just before dawn. Trader consensus reflected in the 46% implied probability for 11°C or below, alongside clustered odds around 14–16°C, suggests markets are pricing in potential for enhanced cooling if winds remain calm or if local urban heat island effects are weaker than anticipated. Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded by 00:00 UTC on September 13, with no major model shifts expected before final observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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