**Model disagreement among major forecast systems is the main driver behind the closely matched Polymarket odds for Toronto’s lowest temperature on September 13.** Official Environment Canada guidance points to a Sunday night low near 10 °C amid increasing clouds and a 40 % chance of showers, favoring radiative cooling once skies clear. In contrast, several GFS-based and other ensemble runs keep overnight readings closer to 17 °C, reflecting stronger warm-air advection and greater cloud cover that would limit heat loss. Wind speeds of 10–15 km/h and variable humidity further modulate boundary-layer mixing, widening the plausible minimum range. With historical mid-September lows averaging 14 °C and model spread persisting into the final 24–48 hours, traders are pricing in roughly equal odds for sub-10 °C versus 19 °C-plus outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely narrow the distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Toronto on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 13?
9°C or below 75%
19°C or higher 42%
13°C 39%
14°C 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 13, 2026
9°C or below
75%
10°C
38%
11°C
38%
12°C
38%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C
24%
16°C
24%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C or higher
42%
9°C or below 75%
19°C or higher 42%
13°C 39%
14°C 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 13, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Обс.
75%
10°C
$0 Обс.
38%
11°C
$0 Обс.
38%
12°C
$0 Обс.
38%
13°C
$0 Обс.
39%
14°C
$0 Обс.
39%
15°C
$0 Обс.
24%
16°C
$0 Обс.
24%
17°C
$0 Обс.
22%
18°C
$0 Обс.
22%
19°C or higher
$0 Обс.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model disagreement among major forecast systems is the main driver behind the closely matched Polymarket odds for Toronto’s lowest temperature on September 13.** Official Environment Canada guidance points to a Sunday night low near 10 °C amid increasing clouds and a 40 % chance of showers, favoring radiative cooling once skies clear. In contrast, several GFS-based and other ensemble runs keep overnight readings closer to 17 °C, reflecting stronger warm-air advection and greater cloud cover that would limit heat loss. Wind speeds of 10–15 km/h and variable humidity further modulate boundary-layer mixing, widening the plausible minimum range. With historical mid-September lows averaging 14 °C and model spread persisting into the final 24–48 hours, traders are pricing in roughly equal odds for sub-10 °C versus 19 °C-plus outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely narrow the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model disagreement among major forecast systems is the main driver behind the closely matched Polymarket odds for Toronto’s lowest temperature on September 13.** Official Environment Canada guidance points to a Sunday night low near 10 °C amid increasing clouds and a 40 % chance of showers, favoring radiative cooling once skies clear. In contrast, several GFS-based and other ensemble runs keep overnight readings closer to 17 °C, reflecting stronger warm-air advection and greater cloud cover that would limit heat loss. Wind speeds of 10–15 km/h and variable humidity further modulate boundary-layer mixing, widening the plausible minimum range. With historical mid-September lows averaging 14 °C and model spread persisting into the final 24–48 hours, traders are pricing in roughly equal odds for sub-10 °C versus 19 °C-plus outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely narrow the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Model disagreement among major forecast systems is the main driver behind the closely matched Polymarket odds for Toronto’s lowest temperature on September 13.** Official Environment Canada guidance points to a Sunday night low near 10 °C amid increasing clouds and a 40 % chance of showers, favoring radiative cooling once skies clear. In contrast, several GFS-based and other ensemble runs keep overnight readings closer to 17 °C, reflecting stronger warm-air advection and greater cloud cover that would limit heat loss. Wind speeds of 10–15 km/h and variable humidity further modulate boundary-layer mixing, widening the plausible minimum range. With historical mid-September lows averaging 14 °C and model spread persisting into the final 24–48 hours, traders are pricing in roughly equal odds for sub-10 °C versus 19 °C-plus outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely narrow the distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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