**A severe early-summer heatwave peaked across France mid-week, driving Paris temperatures to 39–40 °C on June 24–25 before a gradual easing began.** By June 26, official guidance from Météo-France pointed to moderating conditions over the weekend, with Atlantic air and increasing thunderstorm risk expected to cap daytime maxima on June 28. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 30–32 °C (roughly 78 % combined implied probability), reflecting model agreement on cooling yet residual uncertainty over the precise peak. Key scientific differentiators include the exact arrival and depth of the cooler maritime flow, the timing and coverage of convective clouds or showers (which can suppress insolation and lower highs by 2–4 °C), and small spread among high-resolution runs for the Paris basin. Historical June maxima in the capital average near 25 °C, so even a moderated 31–32 °C day would remain well above normal. With resolution only 48 hours away, the next official forecast updates and any late-model shifts in steering or instability will be the primary drivers of further market movement.