The by-election in this traditionally safe Labour seat, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski amid 15 candidates on the October 8 ballot. Recent Camden council results and local polling show the Greens competitive in urban areas, with Polanski’s profile drawing support on climate and housing issues while Labour emphasizes continuity under the current government. Vote fragmentation from Reform UK, Workers Party, Liberal Democrats, and independents compresses major-party margins. Trader consensus on a narrow or non-Labour outcome reflects this proximity, though Labour retains advantages in organization and turnout. Late-campaign events such as voter registration deadlines, postal vote processing, or shifts in national sentiment could widen separation before polling.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLabour 15%+ 41%
Labour 10-15% 25%
Labour 0-5% 15%
Labour 5-10% 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 8, 2026
Labour 15%+
41%
Labour 10-15%
25%
Labour 5-10%
14%
Labour 0-5%
15%
Green 0-5%
7%
Green 5-10%
6%
Green 10-15%
5%
Green 15%+
2%
Labour 15%+ 41%
Labour 10-15% 25%
Labour 0-5% 15%
Labour 5-10% 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 8, 2026
Labour 15%+
$1,467 Обс.
41%
Labour 10-15%
$163 Обс.
25%
Labour 5-10%
$236 Обс.
14%
Labour 0-5%
$199 Обс.
15%
Green 0-5%
$203 Обс.
7%
Green 5-10%
$158 Обс.
6%
Green 10-15%
$633 Обс.
5%
Green 15%+
$116 Обс.
2%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election in this traditionally safe Labour seat, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski amid 15 candidates on the October 8 ballot. Recent Camden council results and local polling show the Greens competitive in urban areas, with Polanski’s profile drawing support on climate and housing issues while Labour emphasizes continuity under the current government. Vote fragmentation from Reform UK, Workers Party, Liberal Democrats, and independents compresses major-party margins. Trader consensus on a narrow or non-Labour outcome reflects this proximity, though Labour retains advantages in organization and turnout. Late-campaign events such as voter registration deadlines, postal vote processing, or shifts in national sentiment could widen separation before polling.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,175Дата завершення
Oct 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election in this traditionally safe Labour seat, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski amid 15 candidates on the October 8 ballot. Recent Camden council results and local polling show the Greens competitive in urban areas, with Polanski’s profile drawing support on climate and housing issues while Labour emphasizes continuity under the current government. Vote fragmentation from Reform UK, Workers Party, Liberal Democrats, and independents compresses major-party margins. Trader consensus on a narrow or non-Labour outcome reflects this proximity, though Labour retains advantages in organization and turnout. Late-campaign events such as voter registration deadlines, postal vote processing, or shifts in national sentiment could widen separation before polling.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Обсяг
$3,175Дата завершення
Oct 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The by-election in this traditionally safe Labour seat, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski amid 15 candidates on the October 8 ballot. Recent Camden council results and local polling show the Greens competitive in urban areas, with Polanski’s profile drawing support on climate and housing issues while Labour emphasizes continuity under the current government. Vote fragmentation from Reform UK, Workers Party, Liberal Democrats, and independents compresses major-party margins. Trader consensus on a narrow or non-Labour outcome reflects this proximity, though Labour retains advantages in organization and turnout. Late-campaign events such as voter registration deadlines, postal vote processing, or shifts in national sentiment could widen separation before polling.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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