**US pressure amid elevated diesel prices from the US-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions has intensified focus on IEA-coordinated stock releases.** G7 nations agreed October 2-3 to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months, with substantial diesel frontloaded in the first 20 days, building on the March 400-million-barrel IEA action where roughly 325 million barrels (over 80%) have already been drawn. Germany, which pledged about 19.5 million barrels in March and holds a large share of EU strategic diesel inventories, stated October 1 that the IEA had not yet requested a drawdown, though it lags on prior commitments. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of near-term IEA communications and any additional releases needed to ease supply tightness before winter. Key upcoming catalysts include IEA member consultations and potential further diesel actions if prices remain elevated.