Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering an Assembly of Experts vote that installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 9. This rapid father-to-son transition, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has anchored trader assessments of regime continuity despite the wartime context. In the ensuing months, further military and clerical reshuffles—including the appointment of a new IRGC commander—have signaled internal consolidation rather than broader upheaval, while limited public appearances by the new leader have fueled speculation over his health. Recent mid-August 2026 leadership adjustments tied to protracted conflict with the United States and Israel reinforce expectations of stability through at least late 2026, with any additional near-term change likely hinging on battlefield developments or internal power struggles within the Assembly of Experts and security apparatus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$23,593,356 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
August 22
<1%
August 31
1%
September 30
5%
October 31
8%
November 30
11%
31 грудня
17%
June 30, 2027
26%
$23,593,356 Обс.
August 22
$57,258 Обс.
<1%
August 31
$1,171,484 Обс.
1%
September 30
$464,067 Обс.
5%
October 31
$13,961 Обс.
8%
November 30
$12,249 Обс.
11%
31 грудня
$4,025,538 Обс.
17%
June 30, 2027
$240,608 Обс.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering an Assembly of Experts vote that installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 9. This rapid father-to-son transition, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has anchored trader assessments of regime continuity despite the wartime context. In the ensuing months, further military and clerical reshuffles—including the appointment of a new IRGC commander—have signaled internal consolidation rather than broader upheaval, while limited public appearances by the new leader have fueled speculation over his health. Recent mid-August 2026 leadership adjustments tied to protracted conflict with the United States and Israel reinforce expectations of stability through at least late 2026, with any additional near-term change likely hinging on battlefield developments or internal power struggles within the Assembly of Experts and security apparatus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Обсяг
$23,593,356Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering an Assembly of Experts vote that installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 9. This rapid father-to-son transition, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has anchored trader assessments of regime continuity despite the wartime context. In the ensuing months, further military and clerical reshuffles—including the appointment of a new IRGC commander—have signaled internal consolidation rather than broader upheaval, while limited public appearances by the new leader have fueled speculation over his health. Recent mid-August 2026 leadership adjustments tied to protracted conflict with the United States and Israel reinforce expectations of stability through at least late 2026, with any additional near-term change likely hinging on battlefield developments or internal power struggles within the Assembly of Experts and security apparatus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$23,593,356Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering an Assembly of Experts vote that installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 9. This rapid father-to-son transition, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has anchored trader assessments of regime continuity despite the wartime context. In the ensuing months, further military and clerical reshuffles—including the appointment of a new IRGC commander—have signaled internal consolidation rather than broader upheaval, while limited public appearances by the new leader have fueled speculation over his health. Recent mid-August 2026 leadership adjustments tied to protracted conflict with the United States and Israel reinforce expectations of stability through at least late 2026, with any additional near-term change likely hinging on battlefield developments or internal power struggles within the Assembly of Experts and security apparatus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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