**Traders assign a 98.9% probability to Spencer Pratt clearing 25% of the vote in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary because certified results show him finishing at roughly 25.5%.** The nonpartisan top-two primary featured incumbent Karen Bass, city councilmember Nithya Raman, and the former reality star, whose campaign gained traction after the 2025 Palisades Fire destroyed his home and amid widespread criticism of city leadership on homelessness and crime. Pratt led Raman on election night, but late-counted mail ballots allowed her to overtake him for second place. Despite that shift, his share stabilized comfortably above the 25% threshold once nearly all ballots were tallied. The strong trader consensus reflects the final reported totals and the absence of any credible recount or certification dispute that would drop him below the line. While an extremely narrow adjustment in the remaining provisional or challenged ballots could theoretically push the figure just under 25%, current margins and the timeline make that outcome highly improbable.