**Forecast consensus points to a mild overnight low near 9–12°C for Buenos Aires on October 11, driven by persistent cloud cover, light southerly flow, and limited radiational cooling under stable high pressure.** Multiple models (including Open-Meteo, Yr, and agency guidance) show overnight temperatures bottoming out in the 9–11°C range after a mostly overcast day with highs around 16–18°C. Southerly winds of 10–15 km/h help moderate extremes by advecting air from the cooler South Atlantic rather than allowing strong surface cooling. Recent frontal passage and lingering moisture have maintained elevated dew points and cloud decks, suppressing the clear-sky radiative losses that could produce sharper drops. The near-even market split between “4°C or below” and “14°C or higher” (both ~49%) alongside clustered mid-range probabilities (~31–33% for 5–13°C) reflects residual model spread in exact minimum timing and any late clearing. Historical October minima in Buenos Aires average near 10–12°C; current conditions align with that baseline rather than outlier cold or warm scenarios. New model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates through October 10 will be the key near-term drivers for any shift in implied probabilities.