Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts show a northwest wind shift advecting cooler marine air into the Bay Area, driving San Francisco’s projected overnight low for October 11 into the low-to-mid 50s and elevating the 52–53 °F bin to 51 % implied probability. Radiative cooling under clearing skies after daytime highs near 60–63 °F, combined with moderate west-northwest breezes that limit boundary-layer mixing, favors this range over warmer or colder extremes. Historical October 11 averages near 58 °F provide context, yet the current pattern departure keeps 62 °F or higher at 47 % while sub-50 °F outcomes remain low-probability tail risks pending the next model cycle.