Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies show clear skies, light winds, and dry air over Madrid for September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 20°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability for 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on stable high-pressure conditions without significant cold-air advection. Historical September 7 lows average around 17°C, yet the current warm anomaly—driven by persistent subtropical ridging—keeps probabilities for sub-20°C outcomes balanced near 50%. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine dew point and wind fields that control the exact low, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at the Madrid reference station.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
30°C or higher 43%
24°C 39%
21°C 37%
20°C or below 35%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
20°C or below
35%
21°C
37%
22°C
26%
23°C
2%
24°C
39%
25°C
20%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
27%
29°C
8%
30°C or higher
43%
30°C or higher 43%
24°C 39%
21°C 37%
20°C or below 35%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Обс.
35%
21°C
$0 Обс.
37%
22°C
$0 Обс.
26%
23°C
$0 Обс.
2%
24°C
$0 Обс.
39%
25°C
$0 Обс.
20%
26°C
$0 Обс.
27%
27°C
$0 Обс.
27%
28°C
$0 Обс.
27%
29°C
$0 Обс.
8%
30°C or higher
$0 Обс.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies show clear skies, light winds, and dry air over Madrid for September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 20°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability for 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on stable high-pressure conditions without significant cold-air advection. Historical September 7 lows average around 17°C, yet the current warm anomaly—driven by persistent subtropical ridging—keeps probabilities for sub-20°C outcomes balanced near 50%. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine dew point and wind fields that control the exact low, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at the Madrid reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies show clear skies, light winds, and dry air over Madrid for September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 20°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability for 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on stable high-pressure conditions without significant cold-air advection. Historical September 7 lows average around 17°C, yet the current warm anomaly—driven by persistent subtropical ridging—keeps probabilities for sub-20°C outcomes balanced near 50%. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine dew point and wind fields that control the exact low, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at the Madrid reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and European agencies show clear skies, light winds, and dry air over Madrid for September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 20°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability for 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on stable high-pressure conditions without significant cold-air advection. Historical September 7 lows average around 17°C, yet the current warm anomaly—driven by persistent subtropical ridging—keeps probabilities for sub-20°C outcomes balanced near 50%. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine dew point and wind fields that control the exact low, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at the Madrid reference station.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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