Recent high-resolution forecast models from European and global ensembles indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on September 6 will likely reach 36–37°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Persistent warm-air advection and above-normal 850 hPa temperatures continue to support readings several degrees above the 28.7°C climatological average, while limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk reduce cooling potential. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, with a smaller tail risk for 38°C if daytime heating intensifies further. Updated runs from agencies such as AEMET and ECMWF, along with real-time observations over the next 48 hours, will refine the exact maximum and directly influence trader positioning ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
37°C 47%
36°C 36%
38°C 13%
35°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 6, 2026
33°C or below
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
6%
36°C
36%
37°C
47%
38°C
13%
39°C
3%
40°C
1%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 47%
36°C 36%
38°C 13%
35°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 6, 2026
33°C or below
$136 Обс.
1%
34°C
$67 Обс.
2%
35°C
$244 Обс.
6%
36°C
$690 Обс.
36%
37°C
$350 Обс.
47%
38°C
$354 Обс.
13%
39°C
$76 Обс.
3%
40°C
$5 Обс.
1%
41°C
$90 Обс.
1%
42°C
$10 Обс.
<1%
43°C or higher
$189 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution forecast models from European and global ensembles indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on September 6 will likely reach 36–37°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Persistent warm-air advection and above-normal 850 hPa temperatures continue to support readings several degrees above the 28.7°C climatological average, while limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk reduce cooling potential. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, with a smaller tail risk for 38°C if daytime heating intensifies further. Updated runs from agencies such as AEMET and ECMWF, along with real-time observations over the next 48 hours, will refine the exact maximum and directly influence trader positioning ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,211Дата завершення
Sep 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution forecast models from European and global ensembles indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on September 6 will likely reach 36–37°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Persistent warm-air advection and above-normal 850 hPa temperatures continue to support readings several degrees above the 28.7°C climatological average, while limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk reduce cooling potential. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, with a smaller tail risk for 38°C if daytime heating intensifies further. Updated runs from agencies such as AEMET and ECMWF, along with real-time observations over the next 48 hours, will refine the exact maximum and directly influence trader positioning ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,211Дата завершення
Sep 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-resolution forecast models from European and global ensembles indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on September 6 will likely reach 36–37°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Persistent warm-air advection and above-normal 850 hPa temperatures continue to support readings several degrees above the 28.7°C climatological average, while limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk reduce cooling potential. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, with a smaller tail risk for 38°C if daytime heating intensifies further. Updated runs from agencies such as AEMET and ECMWF, along with real-time observations over the next 48 hours, will refine the exact maximum and directly influence trader positioning ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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