Traders assign a 98% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 78-79°F in Miami on October 14 because official National Weather Service observations from Miami International Airport recorded a minimum in that narrow range under stable subtropical high pressure. October climatology for the region features typical overnight lows of 74-79°F with minimal diurnal variation absent strong cold fronts or tropical moisture, and no significant weather systems altered conditions that day. Model analyses and surface data confirmed the absence of cooler air advection. Resolution hinges on final verified readings from NOAA stations, with only an unexpected data revision or station-specific anomaly likely to shift the outcome.