Strong global surveillance data from the CDC and WHO showing persistently low SARS-CoV-2 circulation, with only 3.8% test positivity in recent sentinel sampling and very low emergency department visits (0.3%), underpin traders' 96% confidence that no new coronavirus pandemic will occur in 2026. Endemic Omicron subvariants such as BA.3.2 continue to drive modest Rt values around 1.08 without evidence of major increases in severity or healthcare burden, consistent with the post-2023 endemic phase. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include emergence of a highly mutated strain with substantial immune escape and elevated virulence, or a novel coronavirus spillover event meeting international PHEIC thresholds before year-end.