Anthropic's release cadence for the Sonnet tier, following Opus launches by roughly one to four weeks, remains the key driver of market odds on the next Claude Sonnet. After Claude Sonnet 4.6 shipped February 17, 2026—with gains in coding, computer use, and a 1-million-token context window—Opus 4.7 arrived in mid-April, yet no corresponding Sonnet 4.8 has followed as of late June. Traders are also watching the June 9 introduction of the new Mythos and Fable 5 tiers, which could either delay or redefine the traditional Sonnet path. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model updates, alongside Anthropic's historical pattern of iterative improvements in agentic capabilities and benchmarks, continues to shape expectations for an imminent announcement.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Claude Sonnet released by...?
Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
$142,697 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
June 29
9%
June 30
37%
July 1
43%
July 2
39%
July 3
53%
July 10
64%
July 17
72%
July 31
73%
$142,697 Обс.
June 29
$57 Обс.
9%
June 30
$48,007 Обс.
37%
July 1
$5,071 Обс.
43%
July 2
$4,078 Обс.
39%
July 3
$305 Обс.
53%
July 10
$10 Обс.
64%
July 17
$7,167 Обс.
72%
July 31
$77,769 Обс.
73%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's release cadence for the Sonnet tier, following Opus launches by roughly one to four weeks, remains the key driver of market odds on the next Claude Sonnet. After Claude Sonnet 4.6 shipped February 17, 2026—with gains in coding, computer use, and a 1-million-token context window—Opus 4.7 arrived in mid-April, yet no corresponding Sonnet 4.8 has followed as of late June. Traders are also watching the June 9 introduction of the new Mythos and Fable 5 tiers, which could either delay or redefine the traditional Sonnet path. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model updates, alongside Anthropic's historical pattern of iterative improvements in agentic capabilities and benchmarks, continues to shape expectations for an imminent announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 24, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$142,697Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 24, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's release cadence for the Sonnet tier, following Opus launches by roughly one to four weeks, remains the key driver of market odds on the next Claude Sonnet. After Claude Sonnet 4.6 shipped February 17, 2026—with gains in coding, computer use, and a 1-million-token context window—Opus 4.7 arrived in mid-April, yet no corresponding Sonnet 4.8 has followed as of late June. Traders are also watching the June 9 introduction of the new Mythos and Fable 5 tiers, which could either delay or redefine the traditional Sonnet path. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model updates, alongside Anthropic's historical pattern of iterative improvements in agentic capabilities and benchmarks, continues to shape expectations for an imminent announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$142,697Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 24, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's release cadence for the Sonnet tier, following Opus launches by roughly one to four weeks, remains the key driver of market odds on the next Claude Sonnet. After Claude Sonnet 4.6 shipped February 17, 2026—with gains in coding, computer use, and a 1-million-token context window—Opus 4.7 arrived in mid-April, yet no corresponding Sonnet 4.8 has followed as of late June. Traders are also watching the June 9 introduction of the new Mythos and Fable 5 tiers, which could either delay or redefine the traditional Sonnet path. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model updates, alongside Anthropic's historical pattern of iterative improvements in agentic capabilities and benchmarks, continues to shape expectations for an imminent announcement.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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