Recent successful booster tower catches and intact V3 Starship heat shield performance on Flight 13 have advanced rapid reusability for the Super Heavy stage, yet the market-implied 59.5% probability on “No” for full Starship reusability before 2027 reflects the remaining technical gaps in upper-stage recovery. The Ship has yet to demonstrate a tower catch or orbital return, with SpaceX planning its first such attempt on Flight 14 following regulatory clearance. Musk’s timeline for the initial Ship reflight targets late 2026 or early 2027, underscoring schedule compression risks, ongoing Raptor relight reliability work, and the need for both stages to achieve repeated catch-and-refly cycles within months. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 14’s catch attempt and any orbital flight data.