Persistent low traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz—currently under 10 percent of pre-conflict levels with just 5–7 daily transits versus a normal 125–140—have anchored trader sentiment toward the “No” outcome at 72.5 percent implied probability. Geopolitical deadlock between U.S. and Iranian authorities, including Iran’s proposed toll-collection mechanism and designated routing requirements unveiled in mid-May, continues to deter commercial operators amid lingering mine risks and security concerns. Brent crude has remained elevated near $107 per barrel, reflecting sustained supply-chain premiums and reduced Gulf exports, while analysts from Lloyd’s List and the World Bank now project normalization no earlier than September or late 2026. Key near-term catalysts include any progress on mine-clearance operations or bilateral security assurances ahead of the June resolution deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$6,464,124 Обс.
$6,464,124 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$6,464,124 Обс.
$6,464,124 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent low traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz—currently under 10 percent of pre-conflict levels with just 5–7 daily transits versus a normal 125–140—have anchored trader sentiment toward the “No” outcome at 72.5 percent implied probability. Geopolitical deadlock between U.S. and Iranian authorities, including Iran’s proposed toll-collection mechanism and designated routing requirements unveiled in mid-May, continues to deter commercial operators amid lingering mine risks and security concerns. Brent crude has remained elevated near $107 per barrel, reflecting sustained supply-chain premiums and reduced Gulf exports, while analysts from Lloyd’s List and the World Bank now project normalization no earlier than September or late 2026. Key near-term catalysts include any progress on mine-clearance operations or bilateral security assurances ahead of the June resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,464,124Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent low traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz—currently under 10 percent of pre-conflict levels with just 5–7 daily transits versus a normal 125–140—have anchored trader sentiment toward the “No” outcome at 72.5 percent implied probability. Geopolitical deadlock between U.S. and Iranian authorities, including Iran’s proposed toll-collection mechanism and designated routing requirements unveiled in mid-May, continues to deter commercial operators amid lingering mine risks and security concerns. Brent crude has remained elevated near $107 per barrel, reflecting sustained supply-chain premiums and reduced Gulf exports, while analysts from Lloyd’s List and the World Bank now project normalization no earlier than September or late 2026. Key near-term catalysts include any progress on mine-clearance operations or bilateral security assurances ahead of the June resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$6,464,651Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent low traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz—currently under 10 percent of pre-conflict levels with just 5–7 daily transits versus a normal 125–140—have anchored trader sentiment toward the “No” outcome at 72.5 percent implied probability. Geopolitical deadlock between U.S. and Iranian authorities, including Iran’s proposed toll-collection mechanism and designated routing requirements unveiled in mid-May, continues to deter commercial operators amid lingering mine risks and security concerns. Brent crude has remained elevated near $107 per barrel, reflecting sustained supply-chain premiums and reduced Gulf exports, while analysts from Lloyd’s List and the World Bank now project normalization no earlier than September or late 2026. Key near-term catalysts include any progress on mine-clearance operations or bilateral security assurances ahead of the June resolution deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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