The trader consensus assigning a 77 percent probability that the United States will not invade any Latin American country in 2026 reflects the narrow scope of recent military activity in the region. The January 3 special operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro relied on targeted airstrikes and a brief apprehension force without establishing territorial control or prolonged ground presence. Subsequent U.S. actions have centered on maritime interdictions, joint strikes with Ecuador and Colombia against designated cartels, and sanctions pressure on Cuba, all framed by administration statements as efforts to secure borders and disrupt narcotics flows rather than pursue regime change through invasion. With no public announcements or deployments signaling plans for sustained combat operations or occupation as of mid-May, and half the year elapsed without escalation, these developments have anchored expectations against a qualifying invasion.