**The high probability assigned to "No" (88.5%) reflects trader assessment that the January 2026 U.S. military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro constituted a targeted operation rather than a full-scale invasion of another country, with no comparable actions materializing through mid-August.** Subsequent policy has emphasized multilateral initiatives such as the Shield of the Americas coalition for counter-cartel operations, joint strikes with partners like Ecuador, and naval interdictions in the Caribbean, alongside diplomatic summits and economic pressure rather than unilateral ground invasions. No official announcements, troop buildups, or congressional authorizations signal plans for broader military occupation of additional Latin American nations by year-end. Traders view the early-year Venezuela action—framed under an updated Monroe Doctrine emphasis—as an outlier tied to specific narco-terrorism and resource concerns, with current momentum directed toward sustained but limited enforcement and regional partnerships instead of escalation to new invasions.