**No U.S. Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, as reflected in the 79.5% trader probability on “No.”** The court’s two oldest justices—Clarence Thomas (age 78) and Samuel Alito (age 76)—have made no retirement announcements and continue to serve without reported health issues that would prompt departure. In early August 2026, Alito directly addressed speculation by stating he intends to serve another term. Thomas has previously signaled a preference for remaining on the bench. Younger justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), show no signs of stepping down. Earlier 2026 discussion of strategic timing ahead of midterms produced no confirmed actions or vacancies, leaving the current nine-justice composition intact through the calendar year.