Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to "No" on President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, driven by the complete absence of verified health crises, advancing impeachment proceedings, or public statements signaling intent to step down in the past 30 days. Now over 16 months into his second term, Trump remains actively engaged in executive actions and midterm election strategies, with no major scandals or institutional pressures emerging to disrupt his incumbency. Partisan opinions, like Democratic strategist James Carville's earlier predictions of post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President Vance, lack substantiation and have failed to move markets. Late-breaking developments such as legal indictments or sudden health events could alter this stability, but current evidence points to a full term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
$431,570 Обс.
$431,570 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$431,570 Обс.
$431,570 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to "No" on President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, driven by the complete absence of verified health crises, advancing impeachment proceedings, or public statements signaling intent to step down in the past 30 days. Now over 16 months into his second term, Trump remains actively engaged in executive actions and midterm election strategies, with no major scandals or institutional pressures emerging to disrupt his incumbency. Partisan opinions, like Democratic strategist James Carville's earlier predictions of post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President Vance, lack substantiation and have failed to move markets. Late-breaking developments such as legal indictments or sudden health events could alter this stability, but current evidence points to a full term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$431,570Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to "No" on President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, driven by the complete absence of verified health crises, advancing impeachment proceedings, or public statements signaling intent to step down in the past 30 days. Now over 16 months into his second term, Trump remains actively engaged in executive actions and midterm election strategies, with no major scandals or institutional pressures emerging to disrupt his incumbency. Partisan opinions, like Democratic strategist James Carville's earlier predictions of post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President Vance, lack substantiation and have failed to move markets. Late-breaking developments such as legal indictments or sudden health events could alter this stability, but current evidence points to a full term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$431,570Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to "No" on President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, driven by the complete absence of verified health crises, advancing impeachment proceedings, or public statements signaling intent to step down in the past 30 days. Now over 16 months into his second term, Trump remains actively engaged in executive actions and midterm election strategies, with no major scandals or institutional pressures emerging to disrupt his incumbency. Partisan opinions, like Democratic strategist James Carville's earlier predictions of post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President Vance, lack substantiation and have failed to move markets. Late-breaking developments such as legal indictments or sudden health events could alter this stability, but current evidence points to a full term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання