Trader consensus around a low probability of resignation by the end of 2026 stems from Donald Trump's status as a second-term incumbent with no evident institutional, legal, or personal pressures prompting departure. Historical patterns show sitting presidents rarely step down absent acute crises, and recent developments including policy implementation, cabinet stability, and public statements indicate continued focus on the full term through 2029. Senate dynamics and Electoral College results from prior cycles further reduce incentives for early exit. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include sudden health events, major scandals triggering sustained congressional action, or unforeseen family circumstances, though none currently register as imminent drivers in credible reporting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
4% шанс
$527,480 Обс.
$527,480 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
4% шанс
$527,480 Обс.
$527,480 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus around a low probability of resignation by the end of 2026 stems from Donald Trump's status as a second-term incumbent with no evident institutional, legal, or personal pressures prompting departure. Historical patterns show sitting presidents rarely step down absent acute crises, and recent developments including policy implementation, cabinet stability, and public statements indicate continued focus on the full term through 2029. Senate dynamics and Electoral College results from prior cycles further reduce incentives for early exit. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include sudden health events, major scandals triggering sustained congressional action, or unforeseen family circumstances, though none currently register as imminent drivers in credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$527,480Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus around a low probability of resignation by the end of 2026 stems from Donald Trump's status as a second-term incumbent with no evident institutional, legal, or personal pressures prompting departure. Historical patterns show sitting presidents rarely step down absent acute crises, and recent developments including policy implementation, cabinet stability, and public statements indicate continued focus on the full term through 2029. Senate dynamics and Electoral College results from prior cycles further reduce incentives for early exit. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include sudden health events, major scandals triggering sustained congressional action, or unforeseen family circumstances, though none currently register as imminent drivers in credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$527,480Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus around a low probability of resignation by the end of 2026 stems from Donald Trump's status as a second-term incumbent with no evident institutional, legal, or personal pressures prompting departure. Historical patterns show sitting presidents rarely step down absent acute crises, and recent developments including policy implementation, cabinet stability, and public statements indicate continued focus on the full term through 2029. Senate dynamics and Electoral College results from prior cycles further reduce incentives for early exit. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include sudden health events, major scandals triggering sustained congressional action, or unforeseen family circumstances, though none currently register as imminent drivers in credible reporting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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