Florida's new congressional map, enacted in May 2026 after legislative approval and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June, redraws boundaries to favor Republicans and targets a 24-4 partisan split in the state's 28 districts. This follows the prior 20-8 balance and has shifted several previously Democratic-leaning areas into safer Republican territory. With primaries scheduled for August 18, trader consensus prices 7 Democratic wins highest, reflecting expectations that urban strongholds and a handful of competitive districts could still deliver modest Democratic gains despite the map. Lower probabilities cluster around 4 seats or higher totals like 12+, highlighting uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and any national midterm dynamics that might affect close races. Factors such as Democratic fundraising efforts or shifts in voter registration could consolidate support around specific seat totals as the general election approaches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено7 26%
12+ 13%
4 12.0%
6 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
<4
2%
4
12%
5
9%
6
12%
7
26%
8
11%
9
8%
10
9%
11
7%
12+
13%
7 26%
12+ 13%
4 12.0%
6 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
<4
$167 Обс.
2%
4
$1,004 Обс.
12%
5
$365 Обс.
9%
6
$173 Обс.
12%
7
$251 Обс.
26%
8
$202 Обс.
11%
9
$138 Обс.
8%
10
$249 Обс.
9%
11
$180 Обс.
7%
12+
$141 Обс.
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Florida's new congressional map, enacted in May 2026 after legislative approval and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June, redraws boundaries to favor Republicans and targets a 24-4 partisan split in the state's 28 districts. This follows the prior 20-8 balance and has shifted several previously Democratic-leaning areas into safer Republican territory. With primaries scheduled for August 18, trader consensus prices 7 Democratic wins highest, reflecting expectations that urban strongholds and a handful of competitive districts could still deliver modest Democratic gains despite the map. Lower probabilities cluster around 4 seats or higher totals like 12+, highlighting uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and any national midterm dynamics that might affect close races. Factors such as Democratic fundraising efforts or shifts in voter registration could consolidate support around specific seat totals as the general election approaches.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,869Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Florida's new congressional map, enacted in May 2026 after legislative approval and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June, redraws boundaries to favor Republicans and targets a 24-4 partisan split in the state's 28 districts. This follows the prior 20-8 balance and has shifted several previously Democratic-leaning areas into safer Republican territory. With primaries scheduled for August 18, trader consensus prices 7 Democratic wins highest, reflecting expectations that urban strongholds and a handful of competitive districts could still deliver modest Democratic gains despite the map. Lower probabilities cluster around 4 seats or higher totals like 12+, highlighting uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and any national midterm dynamics that might affect close races. Factors such as Democratic fundraising efforts or shifts in voter registration could consolidate support around specific seat totals as the general election approaches.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,869Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Florida's new congressional map, enacted in May 2026 after legislative approval and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June, redraws boundaries to favor Republicans and targets a 24-4 partisan split in the state's 28 districts. This follows the prior 20-8 balance and has shifted several previously Democratic-leaning areas into safer Republican territory. With primaries scheduled for August 18, trader consensus prices 7 Democratic wins highest, reflecting expectations that urban strongholds and a handful of competitive districts could still deliver modest Democratic gains despite the map. Lower probabilities cluster around 4 seats or higher totals like 12+, highlighting uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and any national midterm dynamics that might affect close races. Factors such as Democratic fundraising efforts or shifts in voter registration could consolidate support around specific seat totals as the general election approaches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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