President Trump's second term, running through January 2029, features no verified health issues, public resignation signals, or bipartisan support for invoking the 25th Amendment. Traders assign only a 4% chance of resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting the steep constitutional thresholds for removal—House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate vote—or voluntary departure absent acute pressure. Recent cabinet turnover and isolated Democratic calls for accountability have not generated institutional momentum, consistent with historical patterns of presidential continuity even amid midterm shifts. Speculation around post-2026 electoral losses or fatigue remains unanchored by primary evidence. Late developments such as a sudden medical event, major scandal with cross-party consensus, or unexpected legal ruling could still alter trajectories before year-end.