UAE-Qatar relations remain normalized following their 2021 restoration of full diplomatic ties and embassy reopenings in 2023, with both states actively participating in GCC coordination on security, trade, and regional diplomacy. Recent developments, including Qatar's public condemnation of Iranian attacks on UAE-linked vessels and joint GCC statements with the United States on maritime security and Iran policy, underscore ongoing alignment amid shared challenges. Traders assign 95.2% probability to no severance in 2026 due to this sustained institutional framework and absence of acute bilateral disputes. Underlying competition over regional influence persists in a "cold peace," but no catalysts suggest rupture. Potential shifts could arise from major divergences on Iran engagement, mediation roles, or escalation in Gulf maritime incidents that strain consensus.