The United Arab Emirates' May 2026 departure from OPEC has not prompted any other member to announce an exit, leaving traders to assign a 68 percent probability that no additional country will follow before year-end. Core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait have instead used recent OPEC+ meetings to reaffirm coordinated production adjustments and market-stability commitments, citing greater economic interdependence and quota discipline than the UAE enjoyed. Lingering regional tensions, including supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, have further encouraged collective restraint rather than fragmentation. Without fresh official statements or quota disputes signaling another withdrawal, the implied odds reflect the view that remaining members view continued participation as strategically preferable through 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$92,594 Обс.
$92,594 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$92,594 Обс.
$92,594 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' May 2026 departure from OPEC has not prompted any other member to announce an exit, leaving traders to assign a 68 percent probability that no additional country will follow before year-end. Core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait have instead used recent OPEC+ meetings to reaffirm coordinated production adjustments and market-stability commitments, citing greater economic interdependence and quota discipline than the UAE enjoyed. Lingering regional tensions, including supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, have further encouraged collective restraint rather than fragmentation. Without fresh official statements or quota disputes signaling another withdrawal, the implied odds reflect the view that remaining members view continued participation as strategically preferable through 2026.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$92,594Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' May 2026 departure from OPEC has not prompted any other member to announce an exit, leaving traders to assign a 68 percent probability that no additional country will follow before year-end. Core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait have instead used recent OPEC+ meetings to reaffirm coordinated production adjustments and market-stability commitments, citing greater economic interdependence and quota discipline than the UAE enjoyed. Lingering regional tensions, including supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, have further encouraged collective restraint rather than fragmentation. Without fresh official statements or quota disputes signaling another withdrawal, the implied odds reflect the view that remaining members view continued participation as strategically preferable through 2026.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$92,594Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United Arab Emirates' May 2026 departure from OPEC has not prompted any other member to announce an exit, leaving traders to assign a 68 percent probability that no additional country will follow before year-end. Core producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait have instead used recent OPEC+ meetings to reaffirm coordinated production adjustments and market-stability commitments, citing greater economic interdependence and quota discipline than the UAE enjoyed. Lingering regional tensions, including supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, have further encouraged collective restraint rather than fragmentation. Without fresh official statements or quota disputes signaling another withdrawal, the implied odds reflect the view that remaining members view continued participation as strategically preferable through 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання