The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026—the largest producer exit to date—has dominated recent developments, driven by long-standing quota disputes, a push for greater output flexibility to match capacity, and shifting Gulf priorities amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This leaves 11 members, with remaining producers showing continued coordination on voluntary cuts and market management through mid-2026. Speculation has centered on possible follow-on moves by countries such as Iraq over quota allocations, yet no formal announcements, votes, or confirmed plans have emerged for additional exits before year-end. Trader consensus at 93% against another departure in 2026 reflects the absence of concrete signals, the short remaining timeline, and the group's adjusted cohesion post-UAE.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
7% шанс
$160,131 Обс.
$160,131 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
7% шанс
$160,131 Обс.
$160,131 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026—the largest producer exit to date—has dominated recent developments, driven by long-standing quota disputes, a push for greater output flexibility to match capacity, and shifting Gulf priorities amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This leaves 11 members, with remaining producers showing continued coordination on voluntary cuts and market management through mid-2026. Speculation has centered on possible follow-on moves by countries such as Iraq over quota allocations, yet no formal announcements, votes, or confirmed plans have emerged for additional exits before year-end. Trader consensus at 93% against another departure in 2026 reflects the absence of concrete signals, the short remaining timeline, and the group's adjusted cohesion post-UAE.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$160,131Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026—the largest producer exit to date—has dominated recent developments, driven by long-standing quota disputes, a push for greater output flexibility to match capacity, and shifting Gulf priorities amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This leaves 11 members, with remaining producers showing continued coordination on voluntary cuts and market management through mid-2026. Speculation has centered on possible follow-on moves by countries such as Iraq over quota allocations, yet no formal announcements, votes, or confirmed plans have emerged for additional exits before year-end. Trader consensus at 93% against another departure in 2026 reflects the absence of concrete signals, the short remaining timeline, and the group's adjusted cohesion post-UAE.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$160,131Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026—the largest producer exit to date—has dominated recent developments, driven by long-standing quota disputes, a push for greater output flexibility to match capacity, and shifting Gulf priorities amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This leaves 11 members, with remaining producers showing continued coordination on voluntary cuts and market management through mid-2026. Speculation has centered on possible follow-on moves by countries such as Iraq over quota allocations, yet no formal announcements, votes, or confirmed plans have emerged for additional exits before year-end. Trader consensus at 93% against another departure in 2026 reflects the absence of concrete signals, the short remaining timeline, and the group's adjusted cohesion post-UAE.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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