McGregor's ongoing recovery from the ACL tear suffered against Max Holloway at UFC 329 in July 2026 keeps the next-opponent market wide open, with no official announcement expected before 2027. His coach John Kavanagh has confirmed the former two-division champion remains committed to completing his final UFC contract and targets a summer return, fueling speculation around a Holloway trilogy while leaving room for alternatives such as Michael Chandler, who has been repeatedly linked in prior cycles. The tight clustering around 22-25% for Holloway and Chandler reflects the absence of confirmed scheduling, recent inactivity, and competing narratives involving names like Nate Diaz, Jorge Masvidal, and Ian Garry. This open field allows trader consensus to shift quickly on any new public comments or injury updates.