BTS’s “Swim” leads the 2026 VMA Song of the Year market with a 61.5% implied probability, driven by its dominant global performance as the lead single from the group’s Arirang album and the K-pop act’s historically strong ARMY voting bloc in fan-determined categories. The track posted eight weeks at No. 1 on Billboard’s Global Excl. U.S. chart and finished No. 2 on the 2026 Global Songs of the Summer ranking, sustaining momentum six months after its March release. The Sept. 27 ceremony is just days away, with fan voting closing Sept. 25, amplifying the impact of organized fan campaigns. Among the remaining nominees, Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” sits at 24% on country-streaming traction, while the Madonna–Sabrina Carpenter collaboration “Bring Your Love” holds 11% amid Madonna’s nomination lead and opening performance slot; the other five tracks trade in the low single digits, reflecting narrower fan bases and less sustained chart dominance.