Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline rate, alongside softer core readings, has tempered expectations for an immediate hike and supported a narrow trader edge toward a cut as the next Fed move. The July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured a divided 9-3 vote with three members favoring a 25-basis-point increase, highlighting persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target despite cooling price pressures. Weak July employment figures have added to the balance by raising recession risks and supporting easier policy. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI and jobs reports, the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, and the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, where fresh data could shift the closely contested odds decisively toward a cut or a hike.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHike
47% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
47% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline rate, alongside softer core readings, has tempered expectations for an immediate hike and supported a narrow trader edge toward a cut as the next Fed move. The July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured a divided 9-3 vote with three members favoring a 25-basis-point increase, highlighting persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target despite cooling price pressures. Weak July employment figures have added to the balance by raising recession risks and supporting easier policy. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI and jobs reports, the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, and the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, where fresh data could shift the closely contested odds decisively toward a cut or a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,425Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2028Ринок відкрито
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline rate, alongside softer core readings, has tempered expectations for an immediate hike and supported a narrow trader edge toward a cut as the next Fed move. The July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured a divided 9-3 vote with three members favoring a 25-basis-point increase, highlighting persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target despite cooling price pressures. Weak July employment figures have added to the balance by raising recession risks and supporting easier policy. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI and jobs reports, the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, and the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, where fresh data could shift the closely contested odds decisively toward a cut or a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$2,425Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2028Ринок відкрито
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline rate, alongside softer core readings, has tempered expectations for an immediate hike and supported a narrow trader edge toward a cut as the next Fed move. The July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured a divided 9-3 vote with three members favoring a 25-basis-point increase, highlighting persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target despite cooling price pressures. Weak July employment figures have added to the balance by raising recession risks and supporting easier policy. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI and jobs reports, the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, and the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, where fresh data could shift the closely contested odds decisively toward a cut or a hike.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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