Anthropic's Claude lineup, particularly recent releases like Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, drives the 85.5% market-implied probability through consistent top rankings on independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. These models lead key benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of mid-August 2026, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and offerings from Google, xAI, and others by narrow but measurable margins. Traders appear to view Anthropic's edge in production-relevant capabilities and enterprise adoption as durable through October, with limited near-term catalysts from competitors likely to shift the consensus. Market odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of current capability gaps rather than guaranteed future performance, as new model drops could still alter standings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Anthropic 86%
Google 5.5%
OpenAI 4.9%
SpaceXAI 3.4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
6%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Meituan
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 5.5%
OpenAI 4.9%
SpaceXAI 3.4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,876 Обс.
86%
$190 Обс.
6%
OpenAI
$207 Обс.
5%
SpaceXAI
$315 Обс.
3%
Moonshot
$264 Обс.
1%
Nvidia
$211 Обс.
1%
Alibaba
$219 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$202 Обс.
1%
Meta
$197 Обс.
1%
Meituan
$232 Обс.
1%
Z.ai
$224 Обс.
1%
Amazon
$208 Обс.
1%
Microsoft
$187 Обс.
1%
Thinky
$181 Обс.
1%
Mistral
$201 Обс.
1%
Baidu
$234 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$214 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$214 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$214 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$214 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$202 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude lineup, particularly recent releases like Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, drives the 85.5% market-implied probability through consistent top rankings on independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. These models lead key benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of mid-August 2026, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and offerings from Google, xAI, and others by narrow but measurable margins. Traders appear to view Anthropic's edge in production-relevant capabilities and enterprise adoption as durable through October, with limited near-term catalysts from competitors likely to shift the consensus. Market odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of current capability gaps rather than guaranteed future performance, as new model drops could still alter standings.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,206Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude lineup, particularly recent releases like Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, drives the 85.5% market-implied probability through consistent top rankings on independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. These models lead key benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of mid-August 2026, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and offerings from Google, xAI, and others by narrow but measurable margins. Traders appear to view Anthropic's edge in production-relevant capabilities and enterprise adoption as durable through October, with limited near-term catalysts from competitors likely to shift the consensus. Market odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of current capability gaps rather than guaranteed future performance, as new model drops could still alter standings.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$9,206Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude lineup, particularly recent releases like Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, drives the 85.5% market-implied probability through consistent top rankings on independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. These models lead key benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of mid-August 2026, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and offerings from Google, xAI, and others by narrow but measurable margins. Traders appear to view Anthropic's edge in production-relevant capabilities and enterprise adoption as durable through October, with limited near-term catalysts from competitors likely to shift the consensus. Market odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of current capability gaps rather than guaranteed future performance, as new model drops could still alter standings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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