OpenAI holds a narrow market edge at 51.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, with Anthropic close behind and a broad field of labs clustered near 50%. The tight spread reflects ongoing parity between OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 “thinking” models on objective, contamination-resistant math tasks. Recent July releases and high-effort inference optimizations have produced incremental gains on complex reasoning subtasks, but LiveBench’s six-month refresh cycle and private question rotation limit any single lab’s sustained lead. Traders are pricing in the possibility of further September–October updates from either leader or a surprise from DeepSeek or Google Gemini iterations, keeping the outcome highly sensitive to the next verified leaderboard snapshot.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
OpenAI 52%
Anthropic 48%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
52%
Anthropic
48%
Meta
1%
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
OpenAI 52%
Anthropic 48%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$1,163 Обс.
52%
Anthropic
$1,708 Обс.
48%
Meta
$341 Обс.
1%
$344 Обс.
1%
SpaceXAI
$317 Обс.
1%
Microsoft
$325 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$310 Обс.
1%
Amazon
$326 Обс.
1%
ByteDance
$285 Обс.
1%
Thinky
$285 Обс.
1%
MiniMax
$258 Обс.
1%
StepFun
$290 Обс.
1%
Alibaba
$285 Обс.
1%
Mistral
$305 Обс.
1%
Moonshot
$210 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$290 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$450 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$210 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$250 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$183 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$210 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a narrow market edge at 51.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, with Anthropic close behind and a broad field of labs clustered near 50%. The tight spread reflects ongoing parity between OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 “thinking” models on objective, contamination-resistant math tasks. Recent July releases and high-effort inference optimizations have produced incremental gains on complex reasoning subtasks, but LiveBench’s six-month refresh cycle and private question rotation limit any single lab’s sustained lead. Traders are pricing in the possibility of further September–October updates from either leader or a surprise from DeepSeek or Google Gemini iterations, keeping the outcome highly sensitive to the next verified leaderboard snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$8,345Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a narrow market edge at 51.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, with Anthropic close behind and a broad field of labs clustered near 50%. The tight spread reflects ongoing parity between OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 “thinking” models on objective, contamination-resistant math tasks. Recent July releases and high-effort inference optimizations have produced incremental gains on complex reasoning subtasks, but LiveBench’s six-month refresh cycle and private question rotation limit any single lab’s sustained lead. Traders are pricing in the possibility of further September–October updates from either leader or a surprise from DeepSeek or Google Gemini iterations, keeping the outcome highly sensitive to the next verified leaderboard snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Обсяг
$8,345Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds a narrow market edge at 51.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, with Anthropic close behind and a broad field of labs clustered near 50%. The tight spread reflects ongoing parity between OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 “thinking” models on objective, contamination-resistant math tasks. Recent July releases and high-effort inference optimizations have produced incremental gains on complex reasoning subtasks, but LiveBench’s six-month refresh cycle and private question rotation limit any single lab’s sustained lead. Traders are pricing in the possibility of further September–October updates from either leader or a surprise from DeepSeek or Google Gemini iterations, keeping the outcome highly sensitive to the next verified leaderboard snapshot.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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