The market-implied odds strongly favor no AI reaching a 1550 Elo score on Chatbot Arena in 2026, with Anthropic positioned as the clearest contender ahead of Google and others. This reflects the measured pace of large language model progress, where leading systems continue to deliver incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities through refined training methods and larger-scale inference. Recent model releases from Anthropic have posted competitive benchmark results that keep it ahead in trader consensus, while OpenAI and Google updates have not yet produced the outsized jumps needed to close the gap quickly. Upcoming developer conferences and expected releases later this year remain key swing factors that could alter positioning if they demonstrate meaningful capability leaps.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 1.8%
$54,452 Обс.
$54,452 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
32%
11%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 1.8%
$54,452 Обс.
$54,452 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,084 Обс.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 Обс.
32%
$7,388 Обс.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Обс.
2%
xAI
$5,414 Обс.
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 Обс.
1%
Mistral
$3,688 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market-implied odds strongly favor no AI reaching a 1550 Elo score on Chatbot Arena in 2026, with Anthropic positioned as the clearest contender ahead of Google and others. This reflects the measured pace of large language model progress, where leading systems continue to deliver incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities through refined training methods and larger-scale inference. Recent model releases from Anthropic have posted competitive benchmark results that keep it ahead in trader consensus, while OpenAI and Google updates have not yet produced the outsized jumps needed to close the gap quickly. Upcoming developer conferences and expected releases later this year remain key swing factors that could alter positioning if they demonstrate meaningful capability leaps.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Обсяг
$54,452Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market-implied odds strongly favor no AI reaching a 1550 Elo score on Chatbot Arena in 2026, with Anthropic positioned as the clearest contender ahead of Google and others. This reflects the measured pace of large language model progress, where leading systems continue to deliver incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities through refined training methods and larger-scale inference. Recent model releases from Anthropic have posted competitive benchmark results that keep it ahead in trader consensus, while OpenAI and Google updates have not yet produced the outsized jumps needed to close the gap quickly. Upcoming developer conferences and expected releases later this year remain key swing factors that could alter positioning if they demonstrate meaningful capability leaps.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Обсяг
$54,452Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market-implied odds strongly favor no AI reaching a 1550 Elo score on Chatbot Arena in 2026, with Anthropic positioned as the clearest contender ahead of Google and others. This reflects the measured pace of large language model progress, where leading systems continue to deliver incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities through refined training methods and larger-scale inference. Recent model releases from Anthropic have posted competitive benchmark results that keep it ahead in trader consensus, while OpenAI and Google updates have not yet produced the outsized jumps needed to close the gap quickly. Upcoming developer conferences and expected releases later this year remain key swing factors that could alter positioning if they demonstrate meaningful capability leaps.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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