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icon for Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Технологія·Google

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

icon for Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Технологія·Google

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

None in 2026 85%

Anthropic 13%

Google 3.7%

OpenAI 1.6%

Polymarket

$119,283 Обс.

None in 2026 85%

Anthropic 13%

Google 3.7%

OpenAI 1.6%

Polymarket

$119,283 Обс.

icon for None in 2026

None in 2026

$25,729 Обс.

85%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$15,450 Обс.

13%

icon for Google

Google

$11,366 Обс.

4%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$13,598 Обс.

2%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$11,338 Обс.

1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$13,377 Обс.

1%

icon for xAI

xAI

$9,265 Обс.

1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$9,686 Обс.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$9,474 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on the Polymarket market heavily favors no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven by current top scores clustered around 1507 for Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and nearby models from Meta, Google, and OpenAI. With roughly four months left in the year, the roughly 40-point gap to the threshold appears difficult to close given typical monthly gains from iterative large language model releases. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning due to its repeated leaderboard leadership in 2026 through Claude Opus 5 and Fable variants, though competitive pressure from Meta's Muse Spark and Google's Gemini 3 series limits its implied probability. No major breakthroughs have narrowed the remaining distance substantially in recent weeks.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Обсяг
$119,283
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on the Polymarket market heavily favors no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven by current top scores clustered around 1507 for Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and nearby models from Meta, Google, and OpenAI. With roughly four months left in the year, the roughly 40-point gap to the threshold appears difficult to close given typical monthly gains from iterative large language model releases. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning due to its repeated leaderboard leadership in 2026 through Claude Opus 5 and Fable variants, though competitive pressure from Meta's Muse Spark and Google's Gemini 3 series limits its implied probability. No major breakthroughs have narrowed the remaining distance substantially in recent weeks.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Обсяг
$119,283
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Пов'язане

icon for Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?

43%
icon for Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

22%
icon for Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

70%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 9 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «None in 2026» з 85%, далі «Anthropic» з 13%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?» згенерував $119.3K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Feb 13, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?», перегляньте 9 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?» — «None in 2026» з 85%. Наступний — «Anthropic» з 13%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.