Recent polling from May through August 2026 shows consistent majorities of 60-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain a province of Canada on the October 19 referendum question, with support for commencing a binding separation process ranging from 19-35% and declining from earlier peaks near 28%. Premier Danielle Smith’s May announcement added the preliminary “referendum on a referendum” question alongside immigration and constitutional items, while court rulings struck down citizen petitions for a direct independence ballot over treaty consultation requirements. These factors, combined with the premier’s stated personal preference to stay within Canada, have reinforced trader consensus that neither a decisive independence vote nor a successful yes outcome will occur this year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено6% шанс
$253,949 Обс.
$253,949 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
6% шанс
$253,949 Обс.
$253,949 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling from May through August 2026 shows consistent majorities of 60-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain a province of Canada on the October 19 referendum question, with support for commencing a binding separation process ranging from 19-35% and declining from earlier peaks near 28%. Premier Danielle Smith’s May announcement added the preliminary “referendum on a referendum” question alongside immigration and constitutional items, while court rulings struck down citizen petitions for a direct independence ballot over treaty consultation requirements. These factors, combined with the premier’s stated personal preference to stay within Canada, have reinforced trader consensus that neither a decisive independence vote nor a successful yes outcome will occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$253,949Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling from May through August 2026 shows consistent majorities of 60-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain a province of Canada on the October 19 referendum question, with support for commencing a binding separation process ranging from 19-35% and declining from earlier peaks near 28%. Premier Danielle Smith’s May announcement added the preliminary “referendum on a referendum” question alongside immigration and constitutional items, while court rulings struck down citizen petitions for a direct independence ballot over treaty consultation requirements. These factors, combined with the premier’s stated personal preference to stay within Canada, have reinforced trader consensus that neither a decisive independence vote nor a successful yes outcome will occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$253,949Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from May through August 2026 shows consistent majorities of 60-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain a province of Canada on the October 19 referendum question, with support for commencing a binding separation process ranging from 19-35% and declining from earlier peaks near 28%. Premier Danielle Smith’s May announcement added the preliminary “referendum on a referendum” question alongside immigration and constitutional items, while court rulings struck down citizen petitions for a direct independence ballot over treaty consultation requirements. These factors, combined with the premier’s stated personal preference to stay within Canada, have reinforced trader consensus that neither a decisive independence vote nor a successful yes outcome will occur this year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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