**No** at 88.5% reflects trader consensus that Donald Trump or the U.S. federal government is unlikely to issue a qualifying public announcement seeking sovereignty or control over any portion of Alberta by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Trump has repeatedly floated broader ideas of Canada becoming the 51st state, often tied to tariff threats and trade negotiations, yet these comments have centered on economic leverage rather than territorial claims over specific provinces. Early 2026 meetings between U.S. State Department officials and Alberta separatist groups addressed potential independence scenarios without U.S. commitments to sovereignty or acquisition; separatist leaders have consistently prioritized standalone status over U.S. statehood. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Alberta as a “natural partner,” but this fell short of any direct effort to assert control. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have both stressed respect for Canadian sovereignty, while later statements from U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra confirmed no ongoing meetings or strategizing with separatists. New U.S. tariffs effective in August 2026 have intensified trade talks, yet no legislative proposals, summits, or policy shifts point to territorial ambitions. With no qualifying announcements or actions to date, traders assess the probability of such a move before year-end as low.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено12% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
12% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No** at 88.5% reflects trader consensus that Donald Trump or the U.S. federal government is unlikely to issue a qualifying public announcement seeking sovereignty or control over any portion of Alberta by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Trump has repeatedly floated broader ideas of Canada becoming the 51st state, often tied to tariff threats and trade negotiations, yet these comments have centered on economic leverage rather than territorial claims over specific provinces. Early 2026 meetings between U.S. State Department officials and Alberta separatist groups addressed potential independence scenarios without U.S. commitments to sovereignty or acquisition; separatist leaders have consistently prioritized standalone status over U.S. statehood. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Alberta as a “natural partner,” but this fell short of any direct effort to assert control. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have both stressed respect for Canadian sovereignty, while later statements from U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra confirmed no ongoing meetings or strategizing with separatists. New U.S. tariffs effective in August 2026 have intensified trade talks, yet no legislative proposals, summits, or policy shifts point to territorial ambitions. With no qualifying announcements or actions to date, traders assess the probability of such a move before year-end as low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,844Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No** at 88.5% reflects trader consensus that Donald Trump or the U.S. federal government is unlikely to issue a qualifying public announcement seeking sovereignty or control over any portion of Alberta by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Trump has repeatedly floated broader ideas of Canada becoming the 51st state, often tied to tariff threats and trade negotiations, yet these comments have centered on economic leverage rather than territorial claims over specific provinces. Early 2026 meetings between U.S. State Department officials and Alberta separatist groups addressed potential independence scenarios without U.S. commitments to sovereignty or acquisition; separatist leaders have consistently prioritized standalone status over U.S. statehood. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Alberta as a “natural partner,” but this fell short of any direct effort to assert control. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have both stressed respect for Canadian sovereignty, while later statements from U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra confirmed no ongoing meetings or strategizing with separatists. New U.S. tariffs effective in August 2026 have intensified trade talks, yet no legislative proposals, summits, or policy shifts point to territorial ambitions. With no qualifying announcements or actions to date, traders assess the probability of such a move before year-end as low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$3,844Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No** at 88.5% reflects trader consensus that Donald Trump or the U.S. federal government is unlikely to issue a qualifying public announcement seeking sovereignty or control over any portion of Alberta by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Trump has repeatedly floated broader ideas of Canada becoming the 51st state, often tied to tariff threats and trade negotiations, yet these comments have centered on economic leverage rather than territorial claims over specific provinces. Early 2026 meetings between U.S. State Department officials and Alberta separatist groups addressed potential independence scenarios without U.S. commitments to sovereignty or acquisition; separatist leaders have consistently prioritized standalone status over U.S. statehood. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Alberta as a “natural partner,” but this fell short of any direct effort to assert control. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have both stressed respect for Canadian sovereignty, while later statements from U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra confirmed no ongoing meetings or strategizing with separatists. New U.S. tariffs effective in August 2026 have intensified trade talks, yet no legislative proposals, summits, or policy shifts point to territorial ambitions. With no qualifying announcements or actions to date, traders assess the probability of such a move before year-end as low.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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