Recent confirmed reports of a split between Cardi B and Stefon Diggs, including public statements from the rapper in early 2026, form the core driver behind traders pricing “No” at 79.3% for a 2026 engagement. The couple’s relationship, which went public in 2025 and produced a child late that year, showed classic volatility with an unresolved paternity dispute and minimal momentum afterward, despite Diggs’ February 2026 Super Bowl-related teasing. Unverified July rumors of a deleted Instagram announcement briefly lifted Yes-side odds to around 24%, but these remain unconfirmed by credible outlets and have not altered the market’s assessment of a decisive breakup. With no upcoming reconciliation signals or public appearances on the horizon, traders see little realistic path to an engagement before year-end.