The modest rebound in 2025 global art sales to $59.6 billion, up 4% year-over-year according to the latest Art Basel and UBS report, anchors trader sentiment for the 2026 threshold. Renewed high-end auction momentum, driven by single-owner collections and stronger public sales (up 9%), combined with dealer optimism—43% now expect improvement versus lower prior readings—has lifted implied probabilities slightly above even. Experts surveyed by ArtTactic show 51% forecasting growth this year, reflecting improved confidence after two years of contraction. However, the market remains in recalibration mode, with a bifurcated recovery favoring trophies and accessible segments while the middle lags, requiring roughly 9% expansion to clear $65 billion and leaving room for economic or supply-side volatility to shift outcomes.