Iran qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup through AFC third-round play in March 2025 and remains on the official roster despite regional conflict and U.S. visa scrutiny. FIFA President Gianni Infantino has repeatedly confirmed participation, including matches in the United States, while approving a training-base shift to Tijuana, Mexico, to address logistical concerns. Iranian federation statements and ongoing preparations, such as resolved staff visa appeals, underpin the 99% trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments that could still shift outcomes include a sudden political withdrawal by Tehran, escalated security restrictions, or unresolved entry barriers for players and officials in the days before group-stage fixtures begin.