Trader consensus on a 68.5% chance of House impeachment before the end of Trump’s term reflects expectations that Democrats will regain a House majority in the November 2026 midterms and control the chamber from January 2027 onward. This timeline would give the incoming majority roughly two years to advance articles of impeachment. Multiple resolutions have already been introduced citing administration actions on immigration enforcement and related agency conduct, though recent efforts, including Rep. Al Green’s September 2026 measure, were tabled with support from some Democrats who cited the need for formal investigations. Historical precedent from Trump’s first term and statements from Democratic leaders indicating openness to the process if evidence supports it further shape the pricing, while Senate conviction remains outside the market’s scope.