Ongoing U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil export networks and shadow fleet have limited Tehran's hard-currency inflows, sustaining pressure on the rial amid elevated domestic inflation. Indirect nuclear talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan continue into May 2026, with discussions focused on enrichment limits, ballistic missiles, and potential sanctions relief, though no breakthrough has materialized. Recent OFAC actions in early May tightened enforcement on China-bound shipments, while a temporary general license waiver for already-loaded cargoes expires later this month. Traders monitoring these diplomatic and enforcement signals view any escalation in tensions or stalled progress as likely to reinforce upward movement in the USD/IRR rate through the May 31 window.