Recent global temperature analyses show 2026 tracking as the second-warmest year on record so far, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and an emerging El Niño that has elevated sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. Early-May observations align with this trajectory, placing daily averages close behind 2024 peaks but ahead of prior analogs, which explains the market’s 68% implied probability for second-hottest status on May 1–3. Model consensus from NOAA and Berkeley Earth indicates continued above-baseline anomalies through mid-month, yet the narrow gap to 2024 records leaves room for modest downward revisions once full daily datasets are finalized. Traders are therefore weighting the strong but not record-shattering start to the month most heavily.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 68%
1st hottest 27%
3rd hottest 5.8%
4th or lower 1.4%
$103,323 KL.
$103,323 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
27%
2nd hottest
68%
3rd hottest
6%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 68%
1st hottest 27%
3rd hottest 5.8%
4th or lower 1.4%
$103,323 KL.
$103,323 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$11,188 KL.
27%
2nd hottest
$3,353 KL.
68%
3rd hottest
$39,404 KL.
6%
4th or lower
$49,378 KL.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature analyses show 2026 tracking as the second-warmest year on record so far, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and an emerging El Niño that has elevated sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. Early-May observations align with this trajectory, placing daily averages close behind 2024 peaks but ahead of prior analogs, which explains the market’s 68% implied probability for second-hottest status on May 1–3. Model consensus from NOAA and Berkeley Earth indicates continued above-baseline anomalies through mid-month, yet the narrow gap to 2024 records leaves room for modest downward revisions once full daily datasets are finalized. Traders are therefore weighting the strong but not record-shattering start to the month most heavily.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$103,323Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature analyses show 2026 tracking as the second-warmest year on record so far, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and an emerging El Niño that has elevated sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. Early-May observations align with this trajectory, placing daily averages close behind 2024 peaks but ahead of prior analogs, which explains the market’s 68% implied probability for second-hottest status on May 1–3. Model consensus from NOAA and Berkeley Earth indicates continued above-baseline anomalies through mid-month, yet the narrow gap to 2024 records leaves room for modest downward revisions once full daily datasets are finalized. Traders are therefore weighting the strong but not record-shattering start to the month most heavily.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Khối lượng
$103,323Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature analyses show 2026 tracking as the second-warmest year on record so far, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and an emerging El Niño that has elevated sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. Early-May observations align with this trajectory, placing daily averages close behind 2024 peaks but ahead of prior analogs, which explains the market’s 68% implied probability for second-hottest status on May 1–3. Model consensus from NOAA and Berkeley Earth indicates continued above-baseline anomalies through mid-month, yet the narrow gap to 2024 records leaves room for modest downward revisions once full daily datasets are finalized. Traders are therefore weighting the strong but not record-shattering start to the month most heavily.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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