Recent climate observations and ENSO trends are shaping trader consensus that 2026 will likely rank as the second-hottest year on record. Following the intense 2023–2024 El Niño, which drove record global surface temperatures, current neutral-to-La Niña conditions are moderating heat retention while residual ocean warmth sustains elevated readings above the long-term baseline. This dynamic creates a strong scientific case for 2026 trailing only 2024 or 2025 in the ranking, consistent with the market-implied odds of 57.5% for second place. NOAA and NASA temperature analyses, along with updated climate model runs, will provide key data points through mid-year that could refine these probabilities amid typical year-to-year variability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNăm 2026 sẽ xếp hạng ở đâu trong số những năm nóng nhất được ghi nhận?
Năm 2026 sẽ xếp hạng ở đâu trong số những năm nóng nhất được ghi nhận?
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
Thứ 6 hoặc thấp hơn 2.3%
$2,821,277 KL.
$2,821,277 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
1
36%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
Thứ 6 hoặc thấp hơn
2%
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
Thứ 6 hoặc thấp hơn 2.3%
$2,821,277 KL.
$2,821,277 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
1
$453,741 KL.
36%
2
$325,824 KL.
57%
3
$428,143 KL.
2%
4
$416,574 KL.
3%
5
$732,047 KL.
1%
Thứ 6 hoặc thấp hơn
$464,948 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent climate observations and ENSO trends are shaping trader consensus that 2026 will likely rank as the second-hottest year on record. Following the intense 2023–2024 El Niño, which drove record global surface temperatures, current neutral-to-La Niña conditions are moderating heat retention while residual ocean warmth sustains elevated readings above the long-term baseline. This dynamic creates a strong scientific case for 2026 trailing only 2024 or 2025 in the ranking, consistent with the market-implied odds of 57.5% for second place. NOAA and NASA temperature analyses, along with updated climate model runs, will provide key data points through mid-year that could refine these probabilities amid typical year-to-year variability.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,821,277Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent climate observations and ENSO trends are shaping trader consensus that 2026 will likely rank as the second-hottest year on record. Following the intense 2023–2024 El Niño, which drove record global surface temperatures, current neutral-to-La Niña conditions are moderating heat retention while residual ocean warmth sustains elevated readings above the long-term baseline. This dynamic creates a strong scientific case for 2026 trailing only 2024 or 2025 in the ranking, consistent with the market-implied odds of 57.5% for second place. NOAA and NASA temperature analyses, along with updated climate model runs, will provide key data points through mid-year that could refine these probabilities amid typical year-to-year variability.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,821,277Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent climate observations and ENSO trends are shaping trader consensus that 2026 will likely rank as the second-hottest year on record. Following the intense 2023–2024 El Niño, which drove record global surface temperatures, current neutral-to-La Niña conditions are moderating heat retention while residual ocean warmth sustains elevated readings above the long-term baseline. This dynamic creates a strong scientific case for 2026 trailing only 2024 or 2025 in the ranking, consistent with the market-implied odds of 57.5% for second place. NOAA and NASA temperature analyses, along with updated climate model runs, will provide key data points through mid-year that could refine these probabilities amid typical year-to-year variability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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