Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 at 30.5% or 11–13 at 26.0%, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing exactly five events through mid-May—Malaysia 7.1 on February 22, Tonga 7.5 on March 24, Vanuatu 7.3 on March 30, Indonesia 7.4 on April 1, and Japan 7.4 on April 20—all along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. A 25-day lull since the latest Japan quake has tempered expectations from early-year clustering, aligning with historical averages of about 15–16 annually but high year-to-year variability from tectonic stress release on fault lines. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring of global seismic networks could capture aftershocks or new sequences tipping toward higher bins if activity surges in remaining months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu trận động đất từ 7,0 trở lên vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu trận động đất từ 7,0 trở lên vào năm 2026?
14–16 31%
11–13 26%
17–19 21%
8–10 10.0%
$1,305,226 KL.
$1,305,226 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
5–7
1%
8–10
10%
11–13
26%
14–16
31%
17–19
21%
20+
10%
14–16 31%
11–13 26%
17–19 21%
8–10 10.0%
$1,305,226 KL.
$1,305,226 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
5–7
$70,068 KL.
1%
8–10
$129,521 KL.
10%
11–13
$410,431 KL.
26%
14–16
$183,942 KL.
31%
17–19
$206,159 KL.
21%
20+
$62,166 KL.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 at 30.5% or 11–13 at 26.0%, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing exactly five events through mid-May—Malaysia 7.1 on February 22, Tonga 7.5 on March 24, Vanuatu 7.3 on March 30, Indonesia 7.4 on April 1, and Japan 7.4 on April 20—all along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. A 25-day lull since the latest Japan quake has tempered expectations from early-year clustering, aligning with historical averages of about 15–16 annually but high year-to-year variability from tectonic stress release on fault lines. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring of global seismic networks could capture aftershocks or new sequences tipping toward higher bins if activity surges in remaining months.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,305,226Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 at 30.5% or 11–13 at 26.0%, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing exactly five events through mid-May—Malaysia 7.1 on February 22, Tonga 7.5 on March 24, Vanuatu 7.3 on March 30, Indonesia 7.4 on April 1, and Japan 7.4 on April 20—all along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. A 25-day lull since the latest Japan quake has tempered expectations from early-year clustering, aligning with historical averages of about 15–16 annually but high year-to-year variability from tectonic stress release on fault lines. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring of global seismic networks could capture aftershocks or new sequences tipping toward higher bins if activity surges in remaining months.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Khối lượng
$1,305,226Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 at 30.5% or 11–13 at 26.0%, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing exactly five events through mid-May—Malaysia 7.1 on February 22, Tonga 7.5 on March 24, Vanuatu 7.3 on March 30, Indonesia 7.4 on April 1, and Japan 7.4 on April 20—all along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. A 25-day lull since the latest Japan quake has tempered expectations from early-year clustering, aligning with historical averages of about 15–16 annually but high year-to-year variability from tectonic stress release on fault lines. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring of global seismic networks could capture aftershocks or new sequences tipping toward higher bins if activity surges in remaining months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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