Persistent record-breaking heat across France this summer, including June's hottest national day on record and July's status as the warmest month since measurements began in 1900, has driven trader consensus toward a near-certain outcome. Multiple intense heatwaves, with temperatures exceeding previous benchmarks by wide margins in regions like the southwest and Paris, reflect broader climate trends that have elevated seasonal averages well beyond historical norms. While a dramatic cooling trend in the final weeks of August could theoretically narrow the gap, the substantial early lead makes any upset highly improbable under current meteorological patterns.