Met Office provisional data through mid-August place the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 baseline and well ahead of the 16.12°C record set in 2025. Persistent high pressure has driven repeated heatwaves, with 2026 becoming the first year on record to exceed 35°C in May, June, and July, alongside record numbers of days above 30°C and elevated overnight minima. Only near-average or slightly cooler conditions are now required for the remainder of August to establish a new benchmark in records dating to 1884. Trader consensus at 89% reflects this substantial observational lead, though final confirmation awaits the complete seasonal dataset and any late-month variability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
89% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
89% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Met Office provisional data through mid-August place the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 baseline and well ahead of the 16.12°C record set in 2025. Persistent high pressure has driven repeated heatwaves, with 2026 becoming the first year on record to exceed 35°C in May, June, and July, alongside record numbers of days above 30°C and elevated overnight minima. Only near-average or slightly cooler conditions are now required for the remainder of August to establish a new benchmark in records dating to 1884. Trader consensus at 89% reflects this substantial observational lead, though final confirmation awaits the complete seasonal dataset and any late-month variability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Khối lượng
$762Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Met Office provisional data through mid-August place the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 baseline and well ahead of the 16.12°C record set in 2025. Persistent high pressure has driven repeated heatwaves, with 2026 becoming the first year on record to exceed 35°C in May, June, and July, alongside record numbers of days above 30°C and elevated overnight minima. Only near-average or slightly cooler conditions are now required for the remainder of August to establish a new benchmark in records dating to 1884. Trader consensus at 89% reflects this substantial observational lead, though final confirmation awaits the complete seasonal dataset and any late-month variability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$762Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETMet Office provisional data through mid-August place the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 baseline and well ahead of the 16.12°C record set in 2025. Persistent high pressure has driven repeated heatwaves, with 2026 becoming the first year on record to exceed 35°C in May, June, and July, alongside record numbers of days above 30°C and elevated overnight minima. Only near-average or slightly cooler conditions are now required for the remainder of August to establish a new benchmark in records dating to 1884. Trader consensus at 89% reflects this substantial observational lead, though final confirmation awaits the complete seasonal dataset and any late-month variability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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