Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault on Earth is long enough—requiring over 14,000 kilometers, nearly planetary circumference—to rupture and release that energy. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with recent 2025–2026 seismicity topping out at magnitude 7.4 in Japan, far below megathrust thresholds. While inherent uncertainties in global tectonics persist, no subduction zones or fault systems show precursors for unprecedented ruptures before 2027; USGS real-time monitoring via seismic networks would flag any anomalies, but current data reinforces the near-certainty of "No."
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật10,0 hoặc cao hơn trận động đất trước năm 2027?
10,0 hoặc cao hơn trận động đất trước năm 2027?
Có
$602,247 KL.
$602,247 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$602,247 KL.
$602,247 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault on Earth is long enough—requiring over 14,000 kilometers, nearly planetary circumference—to rupture and release that energy. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with recent 2025–2026 seismicity topping out at magnitude 7.4 in Japan, far below megathrust thresholds. While inherent uncertainties in global tectonics persist, no subduction zones or fault systems show precursors for unprecedented ruptures before 2027; USGS real-time monitoring via seismic networks would flag any anomalies, but current data reinforces the near-certainty of "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$602,247Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault on Earth is long enough—requiring over 14,000 kilometers, nearly planetary circumference—to rupture and release that energy. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with recent 2025–2026 seismicity topping out at magnitude 7.4 in Japan, far below megathrust thresholds. While inherent uncertainties in global tectonics persist, no subduction zones or fault systems show precursors for unprecedented ruptures before 2027; USGS real-time monitoring via seismic networks would flag any anomalies, but current data reinforces the near-certainty of "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$602,247Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault on Earth is long enough—requiring over 14,000 kilometers, nearly planetary circumference—to rupture and release that energy. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with recent 2025–2026 seismicity topping out at magnitude 7.4 in Japan, far below megathrust thresholds. While inherent uncertainties in global tectonics persist, no subduction zones or fault systems show precursors for unprecedented ruptures before 2027; USGS real-time monitoring via seismic networks would flag any anomalies, but current data reinforces the near-certainty of "No."
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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