USGS data and geophysical principles establish that magnitude 10.0+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy; the 1960 Chile event at 9.5 remains the recorded maximum on a roughly 1,000-mile rupture. Trader consensus at 99.2% "No" for an event before 2027 aligns with this limit and the absence of any recent seismic observations or model updates suggesting otherwise. While monitoring by agencies like the USGS continues, only an unprecedented measurement revision or entirely new fault discovery could shift the outcome before the short remaining window closes.