The low annual likelihood of a VEI ≥6 eruption underpins the 93.6% market-implied odds against occurrence in 2026. Global records show such events recur roughly once every 300–400 years on average, with the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991; current USGS and Smithsonian monitoring reports normal background seismicity and gas emissions at high-risk systems with no accelerating unrest or deformation signals indicating rapid magma chamber pressurization. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller, persistent eruptions unlikely to scale to colossal levels within the year. While forecast uncertainty persists and an undetected shift at a large caldera could theoretically produce short-notice escalation, historical patterns and real-time data reinforce trader consensus favoring no major event.