Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of any confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions worldwide through mid-May 2026, per Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program data, driving 58% implied odds for zero total in the year. This aligns with historical patterns showing VEI ≥4 events averaging fewer than one annually in recent years—none in 2025, one in 2024, and sporadic occurrences like two in 2020—maintaining steady frequency over centuries without upward trends. Current seismic and deformation monitoring at active sites like Lewotobi and Mayon reveals low-level unrest but no precursors to large explosive events, though inherent geological uncertainties persist. Weekly GVP updates through late May could shift sentiment if new data emerges on tephra volumes or plume heights exceeding VEI thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu vụ phun trào núi lửa lớn (VEI ≥4) vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu vụ phun trào núi lửa lớn (VEI ≥4) vào năm 2026?
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.3%
3 1.6%
$1,073,515 KL.
$1,073,515 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
57%
1
35%
2
4%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.3%
3 1.6%
$1,073,515 KL.
$1,073,515 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$476,542 KL.
57%
1
$260,191 KL.
35%
2
$31,506 KL.
4%
3
$25,989 KL.
2%
4
$24,441 KL.
<1%
5+
$254,846 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of any confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions worldwide through mid-May 2026, per Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program data, driving 58% implied odds for zero total in the year. This aligns with historical patterns showing VEI ≥4 events averaging fewer than one annually in recent years—none in 2025, one in 2024, and sporadic occurrences like two in 2020—maintaining steady frequency over centuries without upward trends. Current seismic and deformation monitoring at active sites like Lewotobi and Mayon reveals low-level unrest but no precursors to large explosive events, though inherent geological uncertainties persist. Weekly GVP updates through late May could shift sentiment if new data emerges on tephra volumes or plume heights exceeding VEI thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,073,515Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of any confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions worldwide through mid-May 2026, per Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program data, driving 58% implied odds for zero total in the year. This aligns with historical patterns showing VEI ≥4 events averaging fewer than one annually in recent years—none in 2025, one in 2024, and sporadic occurrences like two in 2020—maintaining steady frequency over centuries without upward trends. Current seismic and deformation monitoring at active sites like Lewotobi and Mayon reveals low-level unrest but no precursors to large explosive events, though inherent geological uncertainties persist. Weekly GVP updates through late May could shift sentiment if new data emerges on tephra volumes or plume heights exceeding VEI thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,073,515Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of any confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions worldwide through mid-May 2026, per Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program data, driving 58% implied odds for zero total in the year. This aligns with historical patterns showing VEI ≥4 events averaging fewer than one annually in recent years—none in 2025, one in 2024, and sporadic occurrences like two in 2020—maintaining steady frequency over centuries without upward trends. Current seismic and deformation monitoring at active sites like Lewotobi and Mayon reveals low-level unrest but no precursors to large explosive events, though inherent geological uncertainties persist. Weekly GVP updates through late May could shift sentiment if new data emerges on tephra volumes or plume heights exceeding VEI thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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