No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through mid-August, aligning with the market's 62.5% implied probability for zero such events. Large explosive eruptions remain infrequent globally, with historical rates averaging roughly one VEI 4+ per year or less according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, and current activity at monitored sites like Kīlauea, Semeru, and Sakurajima shows primarily effusive or lower-VEI behavior. Ongoing USGS and GVP surveillance, combined with the short remaining window before year-end, reinforces trader consensus around zero or one outcome while underscoring uncertainties from potential rapid escalation at restless systems.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu vụ phun trào núi lửa lớn (VEI ≥4) vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu vụ phun trào núi lửa lớn (VEI ≥4) vào năm 2026?
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 KL.
$1,156,063 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
59%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 KL.
$1,156,063 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,082 KL.
59%
1
$273,925 KL.
19%
2
$40,872 KL.
4%
3
$31,654 KL.
1%
4
$35,005 KL.
1%
5+
$275,525 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through mid-August, aligning with the market's 62.5% implied probability for zero such events. Large explosive eruptions remain infrequent globally, with historical rates averaging roughly one VEI 4+ per year or less according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, and current activity at monitored sites like Kīlauea, Semeru, and Sakurajima shows primarily effusive or lower-VEI behavior. Ongoing USGS and GVP surveillance, combined with the short remaining window before year-end, reinforces trader consensus around zero or one outcome while underscoring uncertainties from potential rapid escalation at restless systems.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,156,063Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through mid-August, aligning with the market's 62.5% implied probability for zero such events. Large explosive eruptions remain infrequent globally, with historical rates averaging roughly one VEI 4+ per year or less according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, and current activity at monitored sites like Kīlauea, Semeru, and Sakurajima shows primarily effusive or lower-VEI behavior. Ongoing USGS and GVP surveillance, combined with the short remaining window before year-end, reinforces trader consensus around zero or one outcome while underscoring uncertainties from potential rapid escalation at restless systems.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,156,063Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through mid-August, aligning with the market's 62.5% implied probability for zero such events. Large explosive eruptions remain infrequent globally, with historical rates averaging roughly one VEI 4+ per year or less according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, and current activity at monitored sites like Kīlauea, Semeru, and Sakurajima shows primarily effusive or lower-VEI behavior. Ongoing USGS and GVP surveillance, combined with the short remaining window before year-end, reinforces trader consensus around zero or one outcome while underscoring uncertainties from potential rapid escalation at restless systems.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp