Ongoing drought and repeated heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub and Cologne through early August 2026, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and scant rainfall limiting recovery prospects. Trader consensus spreads probabilities across September and October windows, reflecting uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts and the timing of cooler, wetter autumn patterns that historically ease low-water restrictions on inland shipping. The sizable share assigned to no return by November underscores concerns over prolonged dry conditions extending into fall. Fresh precipitation events or sustained temperature drops in the coming weeks could shift sentiment toward earlier resolution, while continued dryness would reinforce later or unresolved outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 35%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 27%
September 15 - 30, 2026 17%
September 1 - 14, 2026 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
Before September 1, 2026
7%
September 1 - 14, 2026
13%
September 15 - 30, 2026
17%
October 1 - 31, 2026
35%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
27%
October 1 - 31, 2026 35%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 27%
September 15 - 30, 2026 17%
September 1 - 14, 2026 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
Before September 1, 2026
$179 KL.
7%
September 1 - 14, 2026
$29 KL.
13%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$29 KL.
17%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$189 KL.
35%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
$120 KL.
27%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing drought and repeated heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub and Cologne through early August 2026, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and scant rainfall limiting recovery prospects. Trader consensus spreads probabilities across September and October windows, reflecting uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts and the timing of cooler, wetter autumn patterns that historically ease low-water restrictions on inland shipping. The sizable share assigned to no return by November underscores concerns over prolonged dry conditions extending into fall. Fresh precipitation events or sustained temperature drops in the coming weeks could shift sentiment toward earlier resolution, while continued dryness would reinforce later or unresolved outcomes.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$546Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing drought and repeated heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub and Cologne through early August 2026, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and scant rainfall limiting recovery prospects. Trader consensus spreads probabilities across September and October windows, reflecting uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts and the timing of cooler, wetter autumn patterns that historically ease low-water restrictions on inland shipping. The sizable share assigned to no return by November underscores concerns over prolonged dry conditions extending into fall. Fresh precipitation events or sustained temperature drops in the coming weeks could shift sentiment toward earlier resolution, while continued dryness would reinforce later or unresolved outcomes.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$546Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing drought and repeated heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record lows at key gauges like Kaub and Cologne through early August 2026, with minimal Alpine snowmelt and scant rainfall limiting recovery prospects. Trader consensus spreads probabilities across September and October windows, reflecting uncertainty in seasonal rainfall forecasts and the timing of cooler, wetter autumn patterns that historically ease low-water restrictions on inland shipping. The sizable share assigned to no return by November underscores concerns over prolonged dry conditions extending into fall. Fresh precipitation events or sustained temperature drops in the coming weeks could shift sentiment toward earlier resolution, while continued dryness would reinforce later or unresolved outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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