Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$135,286 KL.
$135,286 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$135,286 KL.
$135,286 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$135,286Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Khối lượng
$135,286Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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