NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season, citing a strengthening El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses storm formation and intensification, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Forecasters project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 3–5), well below 1991–2020 averages, with only weak tropical storms observed so far. Colorado State University similarly forecasts low major-hurricane landfall odds along the continental U.S. coastline. Even in active seasons, Category 5 U.S. landfalls remain historically infrequent, and current model consensus plus the season’s advanced but still-suppressed state reinforce trader sentiment favoring “No.”
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12% khả năng
$139,433 KL.
$139,433 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
12% khả năng
$139,433 KL.
$139,433 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season, citing a strengthening El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses storm formation and intensification, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Forecasters project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 3–5), well below 1991–2020 averages, with only weak tropical storms observed so far. Colorado State University similarly forecasts low major-hurricane landfall odds along the continental U.S. coastline. Even in active seasons, Category 5 U.S. landfalls remain historically infrequent, and current model consensus plus the season’s advanced but still-suppressed state reinforce trader sentiment favoring “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$139,433Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season, citing a strengthening El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses storm formation and intensification, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Forecasters project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 3–5), well below 1991–2020 averages, with only weak tropical storms observed so far. Colorado State University similarly forecasts low major-hurricane landfall odds along the continental U.S. coastline. Even in active seasons, Category 5 U.S. landfalls remain historically infrequent, and current model consensus plus the season’s advanced but still-suppressed state reinforce trader sentiment favoring “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Khối lượng
$139,433Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season, citing a strengthening El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses storm formation and intensification, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Forecasters project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 3–5), well below 1991–2020 averages, with only weak tropical storms observed so far. Colorado State University similarly forecasts low major-hurricane landfall odds along the continental U.S. coastline. Even in active seasons, Category 5 U.S. landfalls remain historically infrequent, and current model consensus plus the season’s advanced but still-suppressed state reinforce trader sentiment favoring “No.”
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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