A strengthening El Niño is suppressing Atlantic tropical activity through elevated vertical wind shear, underpinning forecaster consensus for a well below-normal 2026 season overall. NOAA projects 8-14 named storms with only a 10% chance of above-normal activity, while Colorado State University’s July update calls for just nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane—well below 1991-2020 averages—with correspondingly low U.S. landfall odds. Only two named storms have formed so far, yielding minimal accumulated cyclone energy. Trader sentiment remains near even because August is climatologically active and short-term steering patterns plus rapid intensification potential introduce genuine uncertainty; any early-month disturbance tracked toward the Gulf or East Coast could quickly shift probabilities. Daily National Hurricane Center model runs and tropical weather outlooks through the first week of August represent the key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.A strengthening El Niño is suppressing Atlantic tropical activity through elevated vertical wind shear, underpinning forecaster consensus for a well below-normal 2026 season overall. NOAA projects 8-14 named storms with only a 10% chance of above-normal activity, while Colorado State University’s July update calls for just nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane—well below 1991-2020 averages—with correspondingly low U.S. landfall odds. Only two named storms have formed so far, yielding minimal accumulated cyclone energy. Trader sentiment remains near even because August is climatologically active and short-term steering patterns plus rapid intensification potential introduce genuine uncertainty; any early-month disturbance tracked toward the Gulf or East Coast could quickly shift probabilities. Daily National Hurricane Center model runs and tropical weather outlooks through the first week of August represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Thị trường mở: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$302Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.A strengthening El Niño is suppressing Atlantic tropical activity through elevated vertical wind shear, underpinning forecaster consensus for a well below-normal 2026 season overall. NOAA projects 8-14 named storms with only a 10% chance of above-normal activity, while Colorado State University’s July update calls for just nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane—well below 1991-2020 averages—with correspondingly low U.S. landfall odds. Only two named storms have formed so far, yielding minimal accumulated cyclone energy. Trader sentiment remains near even because August is climatologically active and short-term steering patterns plus rapid intensification potential introduce genuine uncertainty; any early-month disturbance tracked toward the Gulf or East Coast could quickly shift probabilities. Daily National Hurricane Center model runs and tropical weather outlooks through the first week of August represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Khối lượng
$302Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A strengthening El Niño is suppressing Atlantic tropical activity through elevated vertical wind shear, underpinning forecaster consensus for a well below-normal 2026 season overall. NOAA projects 8-14 named storms with only a 10% chance of above-normal activity, while Colorado State University’s July update calls for just nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane—well below 1991-2020 averages—with correspondingly low U.S. landfall odds. Only two named storms have formed so far, yielding minimal accumulated cyclone energy. Trader sentiment remains near even because August is climatologically active and short-term steering patterns plus rapid intensification potential introduce genuine uncertainty; any early-month disturbance tracked toward the Gulf or East Coast could quickly shift probabilities. Daily National Hurricane Center model runs and tropical weather outlooks through the first week of August represent the key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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