NASA’s Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after reconfiguring Artemis III into a 2027 low-Earth orbit docking rehearsal with commercial Human Landing Systems. SpaceX’s Starship HLS and Blue Origin’s Blue Moon variants remain in active development, hampered by propulsion setbacks, propellant transfer hurdles, and schedule slips documented in recent NASA and inspector general updates. With Artemis II’s April 2026 flyby completed and no hardware ready for a 2026 surface mission, traders assign a 98.3% probability to “No.” While an unforeseen acceleration in Starship testing or regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically compress timelines, persistent technical and integration risks make such an outcome improbable before year-end.