Strong El Niño conditions and associated high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification during the 2026 season, supporting the market's 83% implied probability against a Category 4 landfall. NOAA's August update projects just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University and other models assign only 17–24% odds of any major U.S. landfall. As of late August, the basin has produced just four tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy running 89% below the 1991–2020 average. These factors align with historical patterns of reduced major-hurricane impacts during strong El Niño years, though short-term steering patterns could still allow an outlier. Updated NOAA and NHC forecasts through peak season remain the key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
15% khả năng
$341,038 KL.
$341,038 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
15% khả năng
$341,038 KL.
$341,038 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions and associated high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification during the 2026 season, supporting the market's 83% implied probability against a Category 4 landfall. NOAA's August update projects just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University and other models assign only 17–24% odds of any major U.S. landfall. As of late August, the basin has produced just four tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy running 89% below the 1991–2020 average. These factors align with historical patterns of reduced major-hurricane impacts during strong El Niño years, though short-term steering patterns could still allow an outlier. Updated NOAA and NHC forecasts through peak season remain the key near-term catalysts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Thị trường mở: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$341,038Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions and associated high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification during the 2026 season, supporting the market's 83% implied probability against a Category 4 landfall. NOAA's August update projects just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University and other models assign only 17–24% odds of any major U.S. landfall. As of late August, the basin has produced just four tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy running 89% below the 1991–2020 average. These factors align with historical patterns of reduced major-hurricane impacts during strong El Niño years, though short-term steering patterns could still allow an outlier. Updated NOAA and NHC forecasts through peak season remain the key near-term catalysts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Khối lượng
$341,038Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions and associated high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification during the 2026 season, supporting the market's 83% implied probability against a Category 4 landfall. NOAA's August update projects just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University and other models assign only 17–24% odds of any major U.S. landfall. As of late August, the basin has produced just four tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy running 89% below the 1991–2020 average. These factors align with historical patterns of reduced major-hurricane impacts during strong El Niño years, though short-term steering patterns could still allow an outlier. Updated NOAA and NHC forecasts through peak season remain the key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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