Persistent low-level seismic activity, stable ground deformation, and routine fumarolic emissions at Vesuvius continue to underpin traders' 92.5% implied probability against a VEI 1+ eruption by year-end. The Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) Osservatorio Vesuviano reports confirm this quiescent regime, with April 2026 data showing roughly 68 minor events mostly below magnitude 1, alongside unremarkable geochemical and thermal readings that align with the volcano's post-1944 dormancy. Minor early-2026 swarms subsided quickly without escalation. Realistic challenges include undetected magma intrusion signaled by rising long-period seismicity, accelerated uplift, or sulfur dioxide spikes, which could prompt alert-level changes. Traders are monitoring the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic feeds for any shifts in these key indicators.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Persistent low-level seismic activity, stable ground deformation, and routine fumarolic emissions at Vesuvius continue to underpin traders' 92.5% implied probability against a VEI 1+ eruption by year-end. The Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) Osservatorio Vesuviano reports confirm this quiescent regime, with April 2026 data showing roughly 68 minor events mostly below magnitude 1, alongside unremarkable geochemical and thermal readings that align with the volcano's post-1944 dormancy. Minor early-2026 swarms subsided quickly without escalation. Realistic challenges include undetected magma intrusion signaled by rising long-period seismicity, accelerated uplift, or sulfur dioxide spikes, which could prompt alert-level changes. Traders are monitoring the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic feeds for any shifts in these key indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Thị trường mở: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$431Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Persistent low-level seismic activity, stable ground deformation, and routine fumarolic emissions at Vesuvius continue to underpin traders' 92.5% implied probability against a VEI 1+ eruption by year-end. The Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) Osservatorio Vesuviano reports confirm this quiescent regime, with April 2026 data showing roughly 68 minor events mostly below magnitude 1, alongside unremarkable geochemical and thermal readings that align with the volcano's post-1944 dormancy. Minor early-2026 swarms subsided quickly without escalation. Realistic challenges include undetected magma intrusion signaled by rising long-period seismicity, accelerated uplift, or sulfur dioxide spikes, which could prompt alert-level changes. Traders are monitoring the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic feeds for any shifts in these key indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Khối lượng
$431Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent low-level seismic activity, stable ground deformation, and routine fumarolic emissions at Vesuvius continue to underpin traders' 92.5% implied probability against a VEI 1+ eruption by year-end. The Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) Osservatorio Vesuviano reports confirm this quiescent regime, with April 2026 data showing roughly 68 minor events mostly below magnitude 1, alongside unremarkable geochemical and thermal readings that align with the volcano's post-1944 dormancy. Minor early-2026 swarms subsided quickly without escalation. Realistic challenges include undetected magma intrusion signaled by rising long-period seismicity, accelerated uplift, or sulfur dioxide spikes, which could prompt alert-level changes. Traders are monitoring the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic feeds for any shifts in these key indicators.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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